In building a Europe that matters, works and lasts our actions must be guided by determination, not fear

Prime Minister Andrej Plenković today gave a lecture at the French Institute for International Relations entitled "Europe at the Crossroads: Asserting Sovereignty in a Changing World". He said that the international order is undergoing a profound transformation, European security is at risk, and some of the foundations of transatlantic relations have been undermined. "We can no longer take for granted the institutional, energy or demographic stability of our societies, and investments in defense are a priority for the European continent", the Prime Minister stressed. Speaking about the war in Ukraine, he stressed perseverance in efforts to achieve a just and sustainable peace that respects Ukrainian sovereignty, territorial integrity and will provide Ukraine with lasting security guarantees.

Prime Minister Andrej Plenković is on a two-day official visit to the French Republic, in Paris. The visit began with the laying of a wreath at the memorial plaque in honor of the Croatian regiments that were part of Napoleon's Grand Army, with the French Minister of Labor and Solidarity Jean-Pierre Farandou.

"I laid a wreath at the memorial plaque in honor of the Croatian regiments that were part of Napoleon's Grand Army. Croatia and France are allies on a European and global level, whose strategic partnership continues to strengthen," said Prime Minister Plenković on that occasion.

He then gave a lecture at the French Institute of International Relations entitled "Europe at the Crossroads: Establishing Sovereignty in a Changing World".

Having said at the beginning that talking about the future of Europe today is not easy, Prime Minister Plenković emphasized that the international order is undergoing a profound transformation, the security of structured post-war stability is faltering, and some of the foundations of transatlantic relations - long taken for granted - are now being publicly questioned.

Europe is once again at a historical turning point, he added, at a time when we must clearly see the accumulated tensions, but also the resources we have at our disposal to resolve them.

"Croatia approaches this moment from the perspective of a country that has been independent since 1991 and that has traveled the path from war to full and complete European integration in three decades. It is from this trajectory, marked by resilience, determination and integration, that we are today reflecting on the future of our continent," he said.

The Croatian Experience: From War to European Stability

The Prime Minister pointed out that Croatia is the youngest member of the European Union - and the only one whose recent history bears the hallmarks of aggression that is strikingly reminiscent of what Ukraine is experiencing today.

He recalled that three decades ago, more than a quarter of Croatian territory was still occupied.

In addition, we were taking care of 700,000 refugees, and we had to organize our defense by building an army under an unjust international embargo, faced with Milošević’s Serbia, which had seized most of the arsenals of the Yugoslav army.

“At that time, we were very far from the wave of solidarity that Ukraine, fortunately, is enjoying today,” he said.

At the cost of enormous casualties, we liberated most of our territory in 1995, the prime minister said, adding that we peacefully reintegrated the rest in 1998.

What remained was to rebuild a country where 15% of homes were destroyed, and whose economic damage - relative to the size of our economy - was twenty times greater than that caused by the tsunami in Japan in 2011.

"We have restored stability, rebuilt prosperity, strengthened the rule of law and definitively strengthened our security by joining NATO, and then our future by joining the European Union, and in 2023, the eurozone and the Schengen area," he said.

Speaking about Croatia today, he pointed out that it is among the three fastest growing economies in the eurozone, among the most successful in Europe in renewable energy sources, one of the top twenty tourist destinations in the world, with more than 21 million visitors per year, and one step away from OECD membership, with a credit rating that has risen five notches in seven years and reached category A.

Democracy, security and competitiveness

The Prime Minister said that the crises we have faced together in recent years have revealed a threefold need: to protect our democratic model, ensure our security and strengthen our competitiveness in a fragmented world.

The Union's Strategic Programme 2024-2029 reflects this vision, he stressed.

Our future will depend on our collective ability to act in unity, said Prime Minister Plenković.

Warning that we can no longer take for granted the institutional, energy or demographic stability of our societies, he said that democracy requires constant investment, unwavering vigilance and cohesion that we must nurture.

Defending European peace

The war in Ukraine has become a decisive test of European security, Prime Minister Plenković pointed out.

Saying that the courage, perseverance and heroism of the Ukrainian people are admired by the whole world, he emphasized that for almost four years Ukraine resisted a bigger, better armed and more militant aggressor.

Russia has restructured its economy around the war effort, he said, adding that it devotes almost 40% of its budget and more than 10% of GDP to defense, and that it produces 3 to 4.5 million shells a year, which is up to three times more than the European Union and the USA combined.

Drones have become crucial for tactical supremacy, said Prime Minister Plenković and, in this context, stated that, thanks to the innovative industrial sector, Croatia has become one of the European leaders in the production of FPV drones.

We work closely with the Netherlands and Latvia within the framework of the European Drone Coalition, he added.

Croatian companies hold almost 80% of the global market for remote-controlled demining machines.

He highlighted three basic principles of action: borders cannot be changed by force; Ukraine must receive permanent security guarantees; Europe must be a central actor in any peaceful solution.

He stated that since 2022, Croatia has sent 317 million euros in aid to Ukraine and hosted more than 30,000 refugees.

“Ukraine is now Europe’s first line of defense. And what is at stake in the trenches of Donbas is our own security,” he said.

European Security: A Deteriorating Strategic Environment

Europe is facing the most dangerous security situation since the end of the Cold War, marked by Russian aggression, the rise of hybrid threats and accelerated armaments.

“This dynamic is putting direct pressure on our deterrence and defence capabilities. Europe must adapt its industry, supplies and investments to remain competitive against an adversary that has put its economy at the service of war,” he said.

In this context, he said that Croatia had tripled its defence budget in less than ten years and had committed to reaching 2.5% of GDP in defence spending by 2027, and then 3% by 2030.

In addition, he added, we are modernising our armed forces: our Rafale fighter jets, Black Hawk and Kiowa Warrior attack helicopters, Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, Patria transport ships and Bayraktar drones are already operational.

We are in the process of acquiring Leopard tanks, HIMARS multi-barrel rocket launchers and CAESAR self-propelled howitzers, and we plan to soon strengthen our navy with new corvettes.

Our combat air force is now the most modern between Germany and Greece, filling a long-standing strategic void on NATO's southeastern flank.

Finally, starting in January, Croatia is introducing mandatory two-month basic military training for all 19-year-old men, thereby strengthening national resilience and the readiness of society as a whole, he added.

"We remain deeply committed to the role of NATO, the foundation of our collective defense," said the Prime Minister.

New US National Security Strategy: A Turning Point for Europe

He also referred to the recent publication of the US National Security Strategy, which, he said, represents a break with the past.

Not because it confirms the priority of the US national interest - that is the prerogative of every sovereign government - but because it signals a profound change in the way Washington understands its role in the world.

It is up to us to clearly recognize that this strategy raises big questions for Europe: about the sustainability of transatlantic guarantees, about the sharing of the strategic burden, and about Europe's ability to defend itself if the US commitment diminishes.

This strategy should not divide us, but awaken us, said the Prime Minister, adding that Europe must take greater responsibility for its own security - not against the United States, but for the stability of the transatlantic space.

Energy: The Foundation of Our Sovereignty

Prime Minister Plenković stressed that energy is the invisible foundation of modern freedom.

Everything we consume has traveled - almost always thanks to oil. Without oil, there is no transport, without transport, there is no economy, he added.

He pointed out that, over the past twenty years, the energy available per capita in Europe has been decreasing, not because we are consuming less, but because we are producing less, as Europe's oil and gas reserves are dwindling.

This reduction acts like an invisible tax: it burdens households, fuels economic insecurity and feeds political frustration, he said.

He recalled that the European Union imports 95% of oil, 90% of gas and 67% of coal, while fossil fuels still account for two-thirds of our consumption.

"In a world where great powers use energy as an instrument of power, the energy transition is a geopolitical imperative," he argued.

Speaking about Croatia's contribution to energy security, he pointed out that 54% of our electricity comes from renewable sources, and 20% of nuclear energy via Krško, which is crucial for energy security.

The LNG terminal on Krk, whose capacity has been increased by 6.1 billion m³, has protected Croatia from Russian gas and can now supply our Central European neighbors, and our JANAF oil pipeline can fully meet the oil needs of Hungary and Slovakia.

Therefore, there is no technical or infrastructural reason for any EU member state to rely on exemptions from sanctions on Russian oil, said Prime Minister Plenković.

"There is no sovereignty without energy security. And there is no energy security without diversification, innovation and European cooperation," he said.

Mediterranean: Security, Resilience and Connectivity

Russian aggression must not distract us from our southern neighborhood, the Prime Minister warned, emphasizing that the Mediterranean is a vital crossroads for Europe.

He pointed out that Croatia will chair the MED-9 group in 2026 under the slogan: "Croatia - the Mediterranean gateway to Central Europe."

Our priorities will be a safer, more sustainable, and more resilient Mediterranean, he added.

The Prime Minister emphasized that, in a context marked by tensions in the Middle East, the vulnerability of energy routes, and the impact of climate change, cooperation with North Africa and the Middle East is crucial.

Completing European integration

He also addressed the issue of the enlargement of the European Union, emphasizing that it is no longer a policy, but a geopolitical necessity.

"For Croatia, which has benefited from it, it is a strategic imperative: to advance the integration of the Western Balkans and support the candidate countries. In this sense, Bosnia and Herzegovina occupies a special place," he emphasized.

He recalled that in six days the 30th anniversary of the Dayton Agreement, signed at the Élysée Palace, of which Croatia was one of the co-signatories and guarantors, will be marked.

The stability of Bosnia and Herzegovina requires respect for its constitutional framework and the equality of its three constituent peoples, as defined in the agreements, he emphasized, saying that a functional, European and stable Bosnia and Herzegovina is in the interest of the entire region and the Union.

Competitiveness, innovation and demography: the foundation of our future power

However, confronting the institutional challenges of our neighbourhood is not enough, warned Prime Minister Plenković, adding that Europe must face a deeper, quieter, but equally crucial challenge for its future.

“Demography is the silent thread that structures everything else: our economy, our social cohesion, our capacity for innovation and, ultimately, our ability to ensure our own defence,” he said.

No European project can progress if its human foundation is failing, he added.

In this context, he cited the huge differences between Europe and Africa. Ten years ago, Africa had around 1.25 billion inhabitants. Today, it has 1.55 billion - an increase of 300 million people in a decade.

At the same time, the population of the European Union has remained at around 450 million.

By 2050, Africa will reach two and a half billion inhabitants, while the European Union will remain at roughly the same level as today.

Never in modern history has such a gap widened so quickly between two neighboring continents, said Plenković, adding that this dynamic will have major strategic implications - economic, social, migratory, but also military.

"If Europe fails to reverse its demographic decline, it will experience a decrease in economic dynamics, social cohesion, international influence and, above all, the ability to defend its model of freedom and prosperity. The demographic challenge is therefore not a sectoral or social problem: it conditions the entirety of European power in the decades to come," said the Prime Minister.

In this context, he stated that Croatia had a population of 4.8 million in 1991, and today it has slightly more than 3.8 million, with 20,000 more deaths than births each year.

In efforts to reverse demographic trends, he added, we have adopted the Demographic Revitalization Program and the National Strategy for Affordable Housing.

He recalled that Croatia first put demography on the agenda of European leaders in 2019, which led to the creation of the first European Commissioner for Demography.

Preserving European freedom in a harsher world

The Prime Minister concluded his lecture by stating that Europe is entering a decisive decade.

"We must confront a harsher geopolitical environment while preserving our space of freedom, prosperity and openness," he said.

The new American strategy is a strong signal that the world is changing.

"It must not divide us, but rather encourage us to take greater responsibility for our own security - as a complement to, not in opposition to, transatlantic relations," he stressed.

European strategic sovereignty is not a slogan, the Prime Minister said, it is a condition for protecting our interests, defending our values ​​and guaranteeing democracy.

It requires credible defence, secure energy, competitive industry, strong innovation and resilient supply chains.

"The European Union is more than a market: it is a unique project of peace and solidarity. Preserving and strengthening it is our collective responsibility. Ultimately, our ability to defend democracy will depend on our will to build a stronger, more united and more determined Europe. Not fear, but determination must guide our actions. Determination to invest, to protect, to innovate, to cooperate. To build a Europe that matters. A Europe that works. A Europe that lasts," he concluded.

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